Silicon carbide (SiC) yog cov khoom siv tseem ceeb ntawm thib peb - tiam sis semiconductors. Nrog rau lub cev muaj zog xws li hluav taws xob tawg siab, siab thermal conductivity, thiab dav bandgap, nws tawg los ntawm kev ua haujlwm qab nthab ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob silicon-raws li cov khoom siv hluav taws xob thiab yog cov khoom siv tseem ceeb rau siab -voltage thiab siab- fais fab xwm txheej xws li tsheb tshiab zog, AI suav cov khoom siv hluav taws xob, photovoltaic zog cia, thiab tsheb ciav hlau. Nyob rau hauv 2025, kev lag luam tau ntsib overcapacity thiab tob clearing los ntawm tus nqi tsov rog. Pib los ntawm lub quarter thib plaub ntawm 2025, kev lag luam ushers nyob rau hauv cov qauv inflection point. Automotive-qib thiab AI lub zog- qib siab- cov substrates zoo thiab cov khoom siv nkag mus rau lub voj voog tsis txaus, thaum cov khoom siv qis- kawg dav- cov khoom siv lub hom phiaj tseem xoob, qhia pom kev sib txawv ntawm cov qauv hauv kev lag luam. Kev ua lag luam thoob ntiaj teb tswj hwm qhov kev loj hlob zoo nyob rau lub sijhawm ntev, nrog cov tsheb tshiab lub zog ua lub hauv paus thiab AI xam cov txheej txheem ua qhov kev loj hlob thib ob. Cov kev lag luam hauv tsev tau ua tiav qhov kev sib tw hauv cov ntu ntu, ua rau thoob ntiaj teb hauv 8-inch substrate kev ua lag luam, thaum lub epitaxy, khoom siv, thiab ntu ntu txuas ntxiv mus rau kev hloov pauv hauv tsev. Txawm li cas los xij, automotive-qib ntawv pov thawj, yield, nqi, thiab patent barriers tseem tseem ceeb shortcomings.
I. Kev Lag Luam Txheej Txheem: Cov Ntsiab Cai ntawm Silicon Carbide (SiC) thiab Cov Txheej Txheem Kev Lag Luam
1.1 Khoom Khoom thiab Daim Ntawv Thov Tus Nqi ntawm Silicon Carbide
Silicon carbide (SiC) yog cov khoom siv semiconductor sib xyaw ua ke ntawm silicon thiab carbon, koom nrog thib peb - tiam dav -bandgap semiconductors. Piv nrog rau cov khoom siv silicon (Si) ib txwm muaj, nws muaj peb qhov zoo: kev tawg hluav taws xob hluav taws xob yog kwv yees li 3 npaug ntawm silicon, txhawb nqa qib siab dua; thermal conductivity yog kwv yees li 3 npaug ntawm silicon, txhim kho qhov muaj peev xwm ua kom sov; thiab kev hloov pauv poob qis dua nrog muaj zog siab dua -kub tsis kam. Nyob rau hauv siab -voltage thiab high- fais fab hloov hluav taws xob scenarios, SiC cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tuaj yeem txo qhov kev poob, txo cov cua sov dissipation thiab ntim, thiab txhim kho lub zog hloov hluav taws xob, ua rau lawv cov khoom siv rau kev hloov hluav taws xob thiab kev siv computer.
Ib txwm silicon-raws li IGBTs (Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistors) muaj qhov tsis zoo hauv kev poob thiab cua sov dissipation hauv 800V thiab siab dua -voltage platforms, thaum SiC MOSFETs (Silicon Carbide Hlau-Oxide{5{4}Effecton) yog ib txwm haum rau 800V siab-voltage platforms, yog li ua qhov kev xaiv tseem ceeb rau lub zog tshiab tsheb siab-voltage platforms. Ntxiv nrog rau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob, SiC kuj tseem tuaj yeem siv rau hauv cov lus qhia tawm tshiab xws li RF cov khoom siv thiab cov khoom ntim siab tshaj plaws ntawm cov cua sov dissipation substrates, qhib qhov chaw lag luam ntau dua.
1.2 Industrial Chain Structure
SiC kev lag luam saw tau muab faib ua peb ntu: sab sauv substrates thiab epitaxy; midstream chip manufacturing, khoom siv, thiab fais fab modules; thiab daim ntawv thov hauv qab. Substrates yog ntu nrog tus nqi siab tshaj plaws thiab muaj zog tshaj plaws hauv kev lag luam hauv tag nrho cov saw hlau, suav txog kwv yees li 47% ntawm tag nrho cov nqi khoom siv, thiab yog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev sib tw hauv kev lag luam.
1. Upstream: Substrates + Epitaxy
SiC substrates: muab faib ua cov khoom siv hluav taws xob (cov khoom siv hluav taws xob, lub zog tshiab, lub zog cia, AI cov khoom siv hluav taws xob) thiab semi-insulating type (RF devices). Qhov loj me me yog 6 ntiv tes, kev lag luam yog iterating mus rau 8 ntiv tes, thiab 12 ntiv tes tau nkag mus rau cov qauv pov thawj theem. Qhov loj dua yog txoj hauv kev tseem ceeb rau kev txo nqi. Thaj tsam ntawm 8-inch substrates yog 78% loj dua 6-nti substrates, tus naj npawb ntawm tuag txiav ib wafer nce li ntawm 1.8 mus rau 2 zaug, ntug poob yog txo, thiab ib-wafer tus nqi txo los ntawm kwv yees li 35%. Cov teeb meem tseem ceeb hauv kev npaj substrate yog nyob rau hauv crystal kev loj hlob tawm los, kev tswj tsis raug, thiab qhov loj me. Crystal loj hlob rauv, txiav, sib tsoo, thiab polishing cov cuab yeej yog cov peev txheej tseem ceeb.
Epitaxial wafers: Cov txheej Epitaxial tau loj hlob ntawm substrates los ntawm MOCVD (Hlau-Organic Chemical Vapor Deposition) cov cuab yeej. Kev ua tau zoo ntawm cov cuab yeej yog txiav txim siab los ntawm cov txheej txheem epitaxial zoo, thiab qhov no yog qhov tseem ceeb txuas txuas cov substrates thiab chip manufacturing.
2. Midstream: Chip Manufacturing, Devices, Fais Fab Modules
Ntawm SiC epitaxial wafers, cov txheej txheem semiconductor xws li lithography, etching, thiab ion implantation tau ua tiav los npaj cov chips xws li MOSFETs thiab SBDs (Schottky Barrier Diodes); cov no yog ces ntim rau hauv fais fab modules thiab muab ncaj qha mus rau downstream kawg manufacturers. Overseas IDM (Integrated Device Manufacturer) tuam txhab uas muag (STMicroelectronics, Infineon, Wolfspeed) feem ntau npog tag nrho cov saw ntawm substrate mus rau epitaxy rau cov khoom siv rau modules; Cov tuam txhab lag luam hauv tsev feem ntau tau txais kev faib- ntawm- qauv kev ua haujlwm, nrog rau cov tuam txhab substrate, cov nroj tsuag epitaxy, thiab cov cuab yeej tsim thiab ntim cov tuam txhab tsim tawm ntawm nws tus kheej, thaum qee lub tuam txhab txuas ntxiv mus rau sab saud 布局.
3. Cov ntawv thov hauv qab
Lub zog tshiab tsheb yog lub ntsiab khiav (main inverter, onboard OBC, DC-DC, onboard them pawg); ua raws li photovoltaic inverters, lub zog cia converters, muaj cov khoom siv fais fab, AI server siab- cov khoom siv hluav taws xob hluav taws xob, kev tsheb ciav hlau, siab -voltage grid, thiab ceev- charging infrastructure; cov kev taw qhia pem hauv ntej yog qib siab ntim cov cua kub dissipation substrates rau AI xam chips.
II. Ntiaj teb no thiab Domestic SiC Kev Lag Luam Status
2.1 Kev Lag Luam Loj thiab Kev Loj Hlob Tshaj Tawm
Kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb SiC fais fab khoom lag luam tseem loj hlob sai. Nyob rau hauv 2025, lub ntiaj teb no SiC fais fab khoom lag luam loj yog kwv yees li RMB 40.691 billion. Cov tsev kawm ntawv kwv yees qhov kev loj hlob ntawm 20.5% los ntawm 2026 txog 2032, nrog rau kev lag luam loj nce mus txog RMB 147.968 billion los ntawm 2032. Open Source Securities kwv yees tias lub ntiaj teb SiC kev lag luam loj yuav ncav cuag $ 12.4 billion los ntawm 2030, nrog AI infrastructure ua rau ze li ntawm ib nrab ntawm cov kev xav tau tshiab ntawm lub zog tshiab, relied lub tsheb tshiab ntawm kev loj hlob yav dhau los.
Los ntawm cov qauv xav tau, cov tsheb tshiab tam sim no suav txog kwv yees li 61% ntawm SiC cov nyiaj tau los thiab yog cov ntawv thov loj tshaj plaws. Qhov nce hauv kev nkag mus ntawm 800V siab-voltage platform qauv ncaj qha tsav SiC cov ntsiab lus rau ib lub tsheb; AI server fais fab khoom siv thiab photovoltaic- khaws cia- them nyiaj yog qhov kev loj hlob thib ob. Yav dhau los, kev ua lag luam feem ntau txhais SiC ua cov khoom siv rau lub zog tshiab tsheb khiav. Kev lag luam kev lag luam tam sim no tau hloov kho rau peb - tus qauv tsav tsheb "lub zog tshiab + AI suav lub zog + lub zog tshiab."
2.2 Kev Pabcuam-Ntsemand Pattern: Deep Clearing hauv 2025, Structural Shortage hauv 2026
Los ntawm 2021 txog 2024, cov peev nyiaj loj hauv tsev tau nchuav rau hauv SiC khiav, thiab ntau tus 6-inch substrate tej yaam num tau pib ua kom muaj kev sib haum xeeb. Kev lag luam muaj peev xwm nthuav dav sai. Ua ke nrog kev thov ib ntus poob qis ntawm kev cia siab hauv kev lag luam tsheb tshiab lub zog hauv xyoo 2025, kev lag luam nkag mus rau kev ua tsov rog hnyav. Cov nqi qis-kawg substrates thiab dav dav- cov khoom siv lub hom phiaj poob qis, ntau lub tuam txhab me thiab nruab nrab- cov tuam txhab loj tau poob, thiab kev lag luam tau nkag mus rau lub peev xwm tshem tawm. Kev siv cov peev txheej qis kawg tau poob qis, thiab qee tus neeg tsim khoom tau tawm hauv kev ua lag luam.
Pib txij lub quarter thib plaub ntawm 2025, cov khoom siv-xav tau tus qauv thim rov qab, tab sis qhov no tsis yog qhov kev xa khoom tsis txaus, tab sis qhov tsis txaus ntawm cov qauv: (1) Kev xa khoom ntawm tsheb-qib thiab AI lub zog- qib siab-cov khoom siv hluav taws xob zoo yog nruj, MOSFxy, cov khoom siv hluav taws xob. Kev siv peev txheej ntawm cov tuam txhab ua lag luam substrate tau rov qab mus rau saum 90%, 6-inch substrate tus nqi tau qis dua thiab rov zoo, thiab 8-inch substrate nqi tau nres thiab nce siab; Cov tuam txhab IDM txawv teb chaws Infineon thiab STMicroelectronics, nrog rau cov tuam txhab lag luam hauv tsev xws li Yangjie Technology, tau ua tiav cov lus hais. Lub sijhawm xa khoom rau SiC cov khoom siv rau AI server cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tau ntev mus txog kwv yees li 30 lub lis piam, nrog cov nqi nce ntau dua 15% piv nrog rau qhov kawg ntawm 2025. (2) Kev xa khoom ntawm qis-kawg substrates nrog cov ntsuas tsis zoo uas tsis tuaj yeem dhau daim ntawv pov thawj automotive-qib thiab cov khoom siv dav dav dav dav txuas ntxiv mus rau cov nqi siab, thiab cov khoom siv dav dav dav dav txuas ntxiv mus.
Cov txiaj ntsig tseem ceeb ntawm qhov kev hloov pauv kev lag luam no: kev sib tw hauv kev lag luam tau hloov pauv los ntawm kev sib tw ntawm cov peev txheej mus rau kev muaj peev xwm sib tw hauv kev tawm los, kev tswj tsis raug, tsheb- ntawv pov thawj qib, kev xa khoom ruaj khov, thiab kev tswj tus nqi. Kev lag luam concentration tseem nce ntxiv, thiab ua lag luam tau txais txiaj ntsig.
2.3 Ntiaj teb no Competitive Landscape
Cov neeg loj tshaj plaws txawv teb chaws muaj thawj zaug -mover qhov zoo thiab feem ntau yog siv tus qauv IDM: Wolfspeed (Tebchaws Asmeskas, yav tas los Cree), ROHM (Nyiv), STMicroelectronics (ST), Infineon (Infineon), thiab onsemi. Cov tuam txhab txawv teb chaws muaj kev sib sib zog nqus hauv cov khoom siv hauv substrate patents, automotive - qib cov neeg siv ntawv pov thawj, cov txheej txheem ntawm cov khoom siv, thiab cov khoom ntim khoom, thiab tau ntev nyob hauv lub ntsiab ntawm lub ntiaj teb lub zog khoom lag luam.
Cov lag luam hauv tsev tau ua tiav qhov kev sib tw loj hauv ntu substrate. Hauv 2025, cov tuam txhab lag luam hauv tsev tau ua tiav kev coj noj coj ua thoob ntiaj teb hauv kev ua haujlwm substrate. Tianyue Advanced cov lag luam thoob ntiaj teb sib koom ntawm 8-inch SiC substrates tau tshaj 50%, thiab nws qhov sib koom thoob ntiaj teb ntawm 6-inch conductive substrates ranked thawj. Tianyue Advanced thiab Tianke Heda ua ke tuav cov khoom lag luam substrate ua lag luam tshaj li ntawm Wolfspeed. Tuam Tshoj SiC substrate muab nyiaj rau kwv yees li 50% ntawm lub ntiaj teb tag nrho thiab tau nkag mus rau hauv ntiaj teb thawj theem. Hauv tsev epitaxy, cov khoom siv, thiab ntu ntu tseem nyob rau theem ntes. Cov tuam txhab tsim khoom lag luam hauv tsev tseem poob qab cov thawj coj txawv teb chaws hauv cov ntawv pov thawj tsheb-qib, kev ntseeg tau, thiab muaj peev xwm xa khoom ruaj khov. Lub tsib lub tuam txhab tsim khoom lag luam hauv kev lag luam hluav taws xob hauv tsev ua ke tuav 70.4% kev ua lag luam sib koom, nrog rau peb sab saum toj yog cov lag luam txawv teb chaws, thaum cov tuam txhab lag luam hauv tsev tseem muaj kev lag luam qis.
Cov neeg sawv cev lag luam hauv txhua ntu ntawm cov khoom lag luam hauv tsev: (1) Substrates: Tianyue Advanced, Tianke Heda, Luxshare Technology; (2) Epitaxy: Tianyue Advanced, San'an Optoelectronics, Changfei Advanced; (3) Devices/Modules: StarPower Semiconductor, Times Electric, Silan Microelectronics, Yangjie Technology, Basic Semiconductor; (4) Cov cuab yeej siv hluav taws xob: Jingsheng Mechanical & Hluav taws xob (cov khoom siv lead ua kev loj hlob), Jingsheng Equipment, AMEC (MOCVD epitaxy khoom).
2.4 Txoj Cai Hauv Tsev Ib puag ncig
Raws li qhov tseem ceeb ntawm qhov thib peb - tiam semiconductors thiab cov khoom tsim tau zoo tshiab, silicon carbide belongs rau lub tswv yim kev taw qhia ntawm domestic semiconductor autonomy thiab controllability. Lub teb chaws "14th Tsib-Xyoo Plan" thiab "15th Tsib-Year Plan" txuas ntxiv txhawb kev lag luam ntawm thib peb- tiam semiconductor cov ntaub ntawv thiab cov khoom siv, thiab ntau lub zos tau tsim cov nyiaj tshwj xeeb rau kev lag luam los muab kev pab nyiaj rau kev tsim kab ntau lawm, R&D peev, thiab kev lag luam kev lag luam. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, kev lag luam kev lag luam hauv tsev rau lub zog tshiab tsheb, photovoltaic zog cia, thiab kev siv cov cuab yeej siv hluav taws xob ua rau qis qis qis SiC xav tau. Txoj cai nyiaj faib ua kom nrawm rau kev txheeb xyuas thiab kev qhia txog cov khoom siv hauv tsev, tab sis cov nyiaj pab kev lag luam tau maj mam hloov ntawm cov peev nyiaj pab mus rau qib siab - cov ntsuas zoo xws li R&D, kev txhim kho cov txiaj ntsig, thiab tsheb thauj mus los- ntawv pov thawj qib.
III. Downstream Demand Analysis: Peb Txoj Kev Tsav Tsheb Loj, Kev Loj Hlob Logic Restructured
3.1 Lub Tsheb Hluav Taws Xob Tshiab: Kev Lag Luam Kev Lag Luam Hauv paus, 800V Platforms nce ib -Vim li cas tsheb
Lub zog tshiab tsheb tseem yog qhov loj tshaj plaws ntawm SiC xav tau. Ib txwm 400V platforms yog thawj los ntawm silicon-raws li IGBTs; 800V siab-voltage platforms muaj qhov zoo xws li them sai sai, txo qhov hnyav, thiab txhim kho ntau yam, thiab SiC MOSFETs tau dhau los ua cov kev daws teeb meem loj. SiC cov khoom siv yog siv rau hauv cov khoom xws li lub ntsiab inverter, onboard OBC, DC - DC, thiab onboard charger, thiab ib tug - tsheb SiC tus nqi yog ho siab dua li ntawm 400V silicon - raws li kev daws teeb meem.
Cov neeg tsim hluav taws xob thoob ntiaj teb xws li Tesla, BYD, NIO, XPeng, Volkswagen, thiab Mercedes-Benz txuas ntxiv qhia SiC cov kev daws teeb meem hauv cov qauv siab - kawg. Raws li 800V platform qauv tog rau hauv nruab nrab- qauv qauv, SiC nkag mus ntxiv yuav nce ntxiv. Hauv lub sijhawm luv luv, kev lag luam tsheb lub zog tshiab ntsib kev muag khoom hloov pauv, tab sis qhov nruab nrab - thiab ntev - lub sij hawm hluav taws xob sib txawv yog qhov tseeb. Kev nce nkag ntawm 800V platforms yog 确定性 txoj kab tseem ceeb uas txuas ntxiv tsav SiC ntaus ntawv thov.
3.2 AI Data Center Cov Khoom Siv Hluav Taws Xob: Qhov Kev Loj Hlob Thib Ob, Kev Txhim Kho Kev Lag Luam Ceiling
AI loj- qauv kev suav cov pawg xav tau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob loj heev, thiab kev hloov kho ntawm AI server siab -voltage power supply architectures tsim SiC xav tau ntau heev. Cov khoom siv hluav taws xob siv hluav taws xob niaj hnub yog tswj hwm los ntawm silicon- cov khoom siv raws li. AI high-power, high-density power supplies impose higher requirements on losses, heat dissipation, and power density. SiC cov cuab yeej tuaj yeem txo cov khoom siv hluav taws xob poob qis, txo cov khoom siv hluav taws xob, thiab txo qis cov cua sov siab. Open Source Securities kwv yees tias los ntawm 2030, AI infrastructure yuav pab txhawb ze li ntawm ib nrab ntawm SiC kev lag luam xav tau, dhau los ua qhov kev lag luam tseem ceeb tshaj plaws ntxiv.
Kev taw qhia pem hauv ntej: SiC ua lub siab -thermal- conductivity substrate rau kev ntim khoom siab heev CoWoS (Chip- ntawm- Wafer- ntawm -Substrate), siv rau cov cua kub dissipation ntawm HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) txhawb kev suav chips. Yog tias muaj kev lag luam raug pom zoo, SiC yuav txuas ntxiv los ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob mus rau cov khoom siv ua haujlwm rau kev ntim khoom siab heev, nce ntxiv rau -chip tus nqi thiab qhib qhov chaw lag luam tshiab tag nrho. Txawm li cas los xij, qhov kev taw qhia no tseem nyob rau hauv cov neeg siv khoom kuaj xyuas theem, thiab kev lag luam muaj qhov tsis paub tseeb.
3.3 Photovoltaic Zog Cia, Kev Lag Luam, thiab Kev Thauj Tsheb Thauj Mus Los: Kev nce ntxiv ruaj khov
Ntiaj teb no photovoltaic thiab lub zog cia installation txuas ntxiv mus. Centralized inverters, hlua inverters, thiab lub zog cia PCS yog maj mam iterating los ntawm silicon -raws li kev daws teeb meem rau SiC, kev txhim kho inverter zog ceev thiab conversion efficiency. Muaj cov motors, siab -voltage power supply, rail transit, thiab high-voltage grid transmission are medium- and long-term stability demands characterized long certification cycles, stability orders, and long life cycles, with the highly high requirements for device reliability.
IV. Technology Iteration Path thiab Nruab Nrab- thiab Ntev-Lub Sijhawm Kev Loj Hlob
4.1 Lub Sijhawm Luv luv (2026-2028): Loj-Nqe 8-Inch Implementation, Yield Improvement + The cost Reduction, Accelerated Automotive-Grade Certification
Hauv 2 xyoo tom ntej no -3 xyoos, cov kab kev lag luam tseem ceeb yuav ua kom zoo dua ntawm 6-inch peev thiab loj- nplai ramp-up ntawm 8-nti substrate, epitaxy, thiab cov khoom siv ntau lawm kab . 8 ntiv tes yog qhov kev lag luam loj loj rau 3-5 xyoo tom ntej. Cov tuam txhab lag luam hauv tsev yuav txuas ntxiv nthuav 8-nti cov kab ntau lawm kom txo tau tus nqi ib-wafer.
Cov kev tsis sib haum xeeb tseem ceeb hauv kev lag luam tau hloov los ntawm "txawm hais tias muaj peev xwm" mus rau "kev txhim kho cov txiaj ntsig, kev tswj tsis raug, thiab kev tsaws ntawm tsheb- qib cov neeg siv khoom xaiv." Ntau lub tuam txhab khoom siv hauv tsev tau nrawm AEC-Q100 automotive- ntawv pov thawj qib rau cov neeg tsim khoom, lub zog cia, thiab AI cov neeg siv khoom siv hluav taws xob. Raws li cov txiaj ntsig tau nce ntxiv, cov nqi ntawm SiC cov cuab yeej txuas ntxiv poob qis, tsav SiC nkag los ntawm qib siab- qauv kawg mus rau nruab nrab- qauv qauv thiab los ntawm siab- cov khoom siv hluav taws xob kawg rau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob dav dav.
Kev Pabcuam: Tom qab muaj peev xwm tshem tawm hauv 2025, qhov nrawm ntawm lub peev xwm tshiab qeeb qeeb, thiab qhov kev tso tawm ntawm lub peev xwm tshiab yog qis dua qhov xav tau kev loj hlob. Automotive-qib siab- cov khoom lag luam zoo tswj cov qauv nruj, thiab kev lag luam nkag mus rau lub voj voog ntawm kev nce ntim thiab nqi; qis-kawg substrates thiab dav dav- lub hom phiaj cov cuab yeej txuas ntxiv mus ntsib kev sib tw, thiab cov tuam txhab me thiab nruab nrab- cov tuam txhab loj tsis muaj txiaj ntsig thiab cov neeg siv khoom pov thawj tseem raug tshem tawm, ntxiv rau kev lag luam ntau ntxiv.
4.2 Lub Sijhawm Nruab Nrab (2029-2032): 8 Nti Ua Kom Zoo Tshaj Plaws, 12-Inch Industrialization Pib, Kev Hloov Hauv Tebchaws nkag mus rau thaj tsam dej tob
8-nti cov kab ntau lawm yields txuas ntxiv ua kom zoo, cov nqi poob qis, thiab SiC nkag mus rau hauv lub tsheb tshiab, lub zog cia, thiab AI cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tau nce ntau. Lub hauv paus substrate ntu tswj kev sib tw thoob ntiaj teb; Kev hloov pauv hauv tsev hauv epitaxy, khoom siv, thiab ntu ntu nrawm nrawm, thiab cov tuam txhab IDM hauv tsev maj mam nkag mus rau cov khoom siv ntawm cov neeg ua lag luam txawv teb chaws thiab cov khoom siv hluav taws xob.
12-inch SiC substrates nkag mus rau theem kev txheeb xyuas kev lag luam. Cov tuam txhab xws li Tianyue Advanced twb tau xa cov qauv ntawm 12-inch cov khoom, tsom mus rau cov khoom ntim siab tshaj qhov kub dissipation substrates thiab ultra-high-power device scenarios. 12 ntiv tes ntxiv dilutes ib-wafer tus nqi, tab sis cov cuab yeej siv peev thiab cov txheej txheem nyuaj siab dua, thiab cov pace ntawm industrialization qeeb dua li ntawm 8 ntiv tes.
Kev ua lag luam thoob ntiaj teb nthuav dav sai, thiab qhov sib koom ntawm kev txhawb nqa ntxiv los ntawm AI cov khoom siv hluav taws xob txuas ntxiv nce ntxiv. SiC kev lag luam kev loj hlob tsis yog nyob ntawm tag nrho ntawm lub zog tshiab lub voj voog tsheb hloov pauv, thiab ntau qhov xwm txheej qis qis hedge ib zaug - kev lag luam kev lag luam muaj kev pheej hmoo.
4.3 Lub Sij Hawm Ntev (Tom qab xyoo 2032): Technology Matures, Tus nqi poob qis, nkag mus rau qhov loj -Scale Popularization theem
SiC cov nqi hluav taws xob txuas ntxiv poob qis, maj mam hloov silicon-raws li cov khoom siv hluav taws xob nyob hauv ntau qhov nruab nrab- thiab qis-voltage scenarios, nrog rau daim ntawv thov scenarios nthuav dav rau cov khoom siv hauv tsev thiab cov neeg siv khoom siv hluav taws xob. 12-inch SiC substrates ua tiav loj- nplai ntau lawm. Lub ntiaj teb no kev lag luam saw toj roob hauv pes nyiam mus rau kev ruaj ntseg, thiab Tuam Tshoj tsim ib tug tiav, autonomously tswj SiC industrial ecosystem nrog ntiaj teb no kev sib tw nyob rau hauv tag nrho cov saw los ntawm substrates, khoom, epitaxy, thiab chips rau modules. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, kev sib tw muaj peev xwm muaj nyob rau hauv txoj kev siv tshuab. Tshiab- tiam dav- cov ntaub ntawv bandgap xws li gallium oxide (Ga₂O₃) ua rau muaj kev hloov pauv kev hem thawj hauv cov xwm txheej siab -voltage, tab sis nyob rau hauv nruab nrab thiab ntev lawv tsis zoo li yuav dhau SiC txoj haujlwm tseem ceeb hauv hluav taws xob semiconductors.
V. Investment Logic and Track Selection (Industry / Equity Investment Perspective)
SiC taug qab yog lub peev- hnyav, thev naus laus zis- hnyav, thiab ntev - kev txheeb xyuas lub voj voog. Kev nqis peev tsis tuaj yeem tsuas saib cov peev txheej; lub ntsiab lus yog nyob rau hauv yield, defect indicators, neeg certification, nyiaj ntsuab flow, thiab tus nqi nkhaus. Tom qab xyoo 2025 kev lag luam hloov pauv, kev nqis peev kev lag luam tau hloov pauv los ntawm "muaj peev xwm nthuav dav" mus rau "cov txheej txheem txheej txheem + kev cuam tshuam cov neeg siv khoom."
5.1 Kev nqis peev ua ntej kev txheeb xyuas los ntawm Kev Lag Luam Chain Segment
1. Upstream Substrate Segment: Ua Ntej Automotive-Qib Siab-Yield Conductive Substrate Enterprises
Substrates yog ntu nrog tus nqi siab tshaj plaws thiab muaj zog tshaj plaws nyob rau hauv tag nrho cov khoom lag luam, thiab tsuas yog ntu uas Tuam Tshoj tau ua tiav kev coj noj coj ua thoob ntiaj teb. Core investment indicators: conductive substrate yield, micropipe defect density, 8-inch mass production capability, customer certification, and in-house crystal growth equipment capability. Cov lag luam substrate uas tsuas tuaj yeem tsim cov khoom qis- tsis zoo- qhia cov khoom lag luam thiab tsis tuaj yeem nkag mus rau hauv tsheb-qib cov saw hlau tsis muaj zog ntev - lub sijhawm muaj txiaj ntsig thiab yog lub hom phiaj muaj kev pheej hmoo siab. Upstream siv lead ua kev loj hlob, txiav, sib tsoo, thiab polishing cov cuab yeej muab kev hloov pauv hauv tsev, thiab cov khoom lag luam tau txais txiaj ntsig los ntawm txuas ntxiv nthuav dav ntawm cov kab hauv tsev.
2. Epitaxy Ntu: Tsom ntsoov rau Epitaxy Cov Lag Luam nrog Cov Khoom Muag Khoom Muag thiab Kev Sib Haum Nrog Automotive-Qib MOSFETs
Epitaxy qhov zoo ncaj qha txiav txim siab kev ntseeg tau ntawm cov cuab yeej, thiab tsheb-qib epitaxy muaj kev cuam tshuam kev ua haujlwm siab. Epitaxy cov nroj tsuag xav tau kev sib koom tes sib sib zog nqus nrog cov nroj tsuag substrate thiab cov nroj tsuag ntaus ntawv. Cov lag luam uas ruaj khov epitaxial txheej thickness thiab doping tswj muaj peev xwm muaj qhov ntev - nqi.
3. Midstream Devices thiab Fais Fab Modules: Tsom ntsoov rau Automotive -Qib Designations, Reliability Verification, thiab ntim peev xwm
Cov cuab yeej ntu muaj qhov tob tshaj plaws rau cov neeg loj tuaj txawv teb chaws, nrog cov ntawv pov thawj ntev (automaker ntawv pov thawj feem ntau yuav siv sijhawm 2-3 xyoos). Kev nqis peev yuav tsum tau ua qhov tseem ceeb rau cov lag luam uas twb tau txais kev xaiv los ntawm cov tuam txhab ua lag luam, AI fais fab mov, thiab cov neeg siv khoom siv hluav taws xob thiab muaj AEC-Q100 ntawv pov thawj; lub hwj chim module ntim yog ib qho chaw tsis muaj zog hauv tsev, thiab cov txheej txheem ntim khoom muaj kev ntseeg siab thiab cov txheej txheem ntim qib siab xws li nyiaj sintering muaj peev txheej peev. Fabless kev lag luam nrog cov qauv tsim ntshiab thiab tsis muaj cov kab tsim khoom muaj kev pheej hmoo los ntawm cov khoom siv substrate thiab cov txheej txheem hloov pauv.
4. Downstream Application End: Tsom ntsoov rau Kev Siv Hluav Taws Xob thiab Hluav Taws Xob Tswj Kev Lag Luam nrog SiC Solution System Tsim Muaj peev xwm
Tus nqi ntawm cov tuam txhab tsim khoom tsis yog nyob rau hauv kev yuav khoom nkaus xwb, tab sis kuj tseem muaj cov ntawv thov kev siv hluav taws xob, cua sov dissipation, thiab tswj cov peev txheej ntawm SiC, uas tuaj yeem ua kom muaj txiaj ntsig zoo ntawm SiC. Ua ntej tshaj plaws hauv kev lag luam hauv 800V hluav taws xob tswj, AI server fais fab khoom siv, thiab lub zog cia PCS.
5.2 Kev nqis peev zoo
Kev nqis peev tseem ceeb hauv kev lag luam: Ua ntej layout nyob rau hauv siab -txoj kev teeb meem xws li substrates, cov khoom siv hluav taws xob, tsheb- qib epitaxy, thiab fais fab modules; zam qhov qis-kawg substrate tej yaam num uas cia siab rau ntawm tus nqi qis thiab qis yields. Ua ntej cov tuam txhab lag luam uas tau ua tiav cov qauv xa khoom thiab kev txheeb xyuas kev pom zoo nrog cov neeg ua lag luam thiab tau txhawb R & D peev; ceev faj txog cov haujlwm uas tseem tsis tau nkag mus rau cov neeg siv khoom pov thawj thiab tsuas yog nyob rau ntawm theem qauv.
Kev lag luam peev: Tsim nyog rau kev sib koom ua ke ntsug ntawm cov saw hlau. Automakers, lub zog cia, thiab suav cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tuaj yeem kaw cov substrate thiab epitaxy muaj peev xwm nce siab kom ntseeg tau cov saw hlau ruaj ntseg thiab tiv thaiv cov khoom lag luam tawm txawv teb chaws cuam tshuam.
Kev tsom xam tus nqi: Kev lag luam yog nyob rau hauv lub voj voog nthuav dav, thiab cov lag luam feem ntau muaj kev siv peev nyiaj ua ntej thiab lagging profitability. Kev ntsuas PE tsis tuaj yeem siv tau yooj yim; tsom rau kev taug qab cov txiaj ntsig kev nce qib- nce kev nce qib, tus nqi wafer chav tsev, kev txiav txim rau cov neeg siv khoom, kev siv peev txheej, thiab nyiaj txiag ntws.
VI. Core Industry Risk Warnings
6.1 Risk of Downstream Demand poob luv ntawm kev cia siab
Yog tias lub zog tshiab muag tsheb thiab 800V qauv nkag mus poob qis dua qhov kev cia siab, SiC qhov kev thov yuav raug rub ncaj qha; Yog tias AI neeg rau zaub mov peev kev siv nyiaj tau cog lus ib ntus, AI lub zog xav tau kev loj hlob yuav qeeb. SiC kev lag luam xav tau yog sib sib zog nqus rau ob lub peev loj - kev siv nyiaj - kev lag luam hnyav hnyav ntawm lub zog tshiab thiab kev siv hluav taws xob, thiab muaj kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev hloov pauv.
6.2 Technology thiab Yield Risk
SiC crystal kev loj hlob thiab cov txheej txheem epitaxy yog qhov nyuaj. Cov txiaj ntsig kev txhim kho kev nce qib poob qis ntawm kev cia siab yuav txuas ntxiv thawb cov nqi; ramp-txog nyuaj ntawm qhov loj- loj 8-inch thiab 12-nti cov kab ntau lawm yuav siab tshaj qhov xav tau; Kev siv thev naus laus zis hauv lwm cov ntaub ntawv dav dav xws li gallium oxide tuaj yeem tsim kev pheej hmoo hloov pauv.
6.3 Tus nqi sib tw thiab cov txiaj ntsig poob qis
Txawm hais tias automotive- cov khoom lag luam qib tam sim no nyob rau hauv cov qauv tsis txaus, yog tias muaj ntau ntawm 8-inch substrates tau muab tso rau hauv kev tsim khoom hauv kev sib xyaw ua ke hauv 2 xyoos tom ntej no-3 xyoo, kev lag luam tuaj yeem nkag mus rau oversupply, ua rau muaj kev sib ntaus sib tua tshiab ntawm tus nqi, ua rau cov lag luam gross margins ntau ntxiv rau. Kev lag luam peev kev siv nyiaj yog loj heev thiab depreciation siab yog siab; Txawm tias muaj kev loj hlob ntawm cov nyiaj tau los, cov lag luam tseem tuaj yeem ua rau poob rau lub sijhawm ntev.
6.4 Patent thiab International Trade Risk
Cov thawj coj txawv teb chaws tuav ntau tus tseem ceeb patents rau SiC substrates thiab cov khoom siv, thiab cov tuam txhab lag luam hauv tsev ntsib kev pheej hmoo patent teeb meem; semiconductor export tswj thiab kev lag luam tawm txawv teb chaws cuam tshuam rau kev lag luam hauv tsev 'kev nthuav dav rau cov neeg siv khoom txawv teb chaws thiab kev xa khoom ntawm cov khoom siv thiab cov khoom siv.
6.5 Certification Risk
Daim ntawv pov thawj voj voog rau tsheb-qib thiab kev lag luam- qib khoom siv tau ntev. Tom qab kev nqis peev ntau R & D cov nyiaj, kev ua tsis tiav hauv cov neeg siv khoom pov thawj lossis kev ncua sij hawm yuav cuam tshuam ncaj qha rau kev lag luam kev lag luam.
VII. Xaus
Raws li lub hauv paus tseem ceeb ntawm thib peb - tiam sis sib xyaw semiconductors, silicon carbide (SiC) tau ntsib kev muaj peev xwm tshem tawm hauv 2025 thiab ua rau muaj kev vam meej ntawm cov qauv tsim. Kev loj hlob logic tau hloov kho los ntawm ib lub zog tshiab tsav tsheb mus rau ntau- taug qab resonance ntawm lub zog tshiab tsheb + AI suav cov khoom siv fais fab + photovoltaic zog cia. Hauv lub sijhawm luv luv, kev lag luam qhia txog kev tsim khoom tsim khoom-xav tau qhov sib txawv: siab- tsheb zoo- cov khoom lag luam tsis txaus, thaum cov khoom qis- kawg cov khoom tseem raug kev sib tw hnyav; nyob rau hauv nruab nrab thiab ntev lub sij hawm, loj- nplai 8- nti txo tus nqi thiab kev hloov hauv tsev yog cov kab tseem ceeb, thiab AI suav cov khoom siv hluav taws xob qhib qhov kev loj hlob mus sij hawm ntev ntawm kev lag luam.
Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam saw tau ua tiav thoob ntiaj teb kev ua tiav hauv ntu ntu, thaum epitaxy, cov khoom siv, thiab cov ntu ntu txuas ntxiv mus, tab sis tsheb- ntawv pov thawj qib, yield, nqi, thiab patents tseem muaj qhov tsis txaus. Nyob rau theem kev nqis peev, txoj kev taug kev ntev - lub sijhawm loj hlob qhov chaw yog qhov tseeb, tab sis kev lag luam yog siab - peev- kev siv nyiaj, ntev - pov thawj- lub voj voog taug qab thiab tsis haum rau kev yooj yim caum cov tswv yim muaj peev xwm. Cov txheej txheem tseem ceeb rau kev tshuaj xyuas cov phiaj xwm peev: cov txiaj ntsig siab, qhov ntsuas qhov tsis zoo, ua rau cov neeg siv khoom tsim, kev siv tsheb- ntawv pov thawj qib, thiab tus nqi tswj tau. Ua ntej layout nyob rau hauv siab -txoj kev barrier ntu xws li upstream substrates, siv lead ua kev loj hlob cov khoom, automotive- qib epitaxy, thiab fais fab modules, thiab zam tej yaam num uas tsis muaj cov tub ntxhais cov neeg muas zaub, nrog tsawg yield, thiab cia siab rau ntawm lub peev xwm scale. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, nws yog qhov yuav tsum tau ua raws li cov kev hloov pauv tseem ceeb xws li kev muag tsheb tshiab, AI peev kev siv nyiaj, 8-inch yield ramp-up, thiab txawv teb chaws patent thiab kev lag luam cov cai los tiv thaiv kev hloov pauv thiab kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev lag luam poob qis ntawm kev cia siab.